Long-term Energy Forecasting Methodologies: Review and Discussion
الباحث الأول:
Ahmed I. Ahmed Shubber
الباحثين الآخرين:
Esam A. Alkaldy
المجلة:
CENTRAL ASIAN STUDIES
تاريخ النشر:
30 مارس، 2025
مختصر البحث:
Abstract: Due to the development of human activities, energy demands are rapidly variable
nowadays; these changes need to be tracked by the energy producers and suppliers. Adding new
generation facilities is considered costly and time-consuming fo…
Abstract: Due to the development of human activities, energy demands are rapidly variable
nowadays; these changes need to be tracked by the energy producers and suppliers. Adding new
generation facilities is considered costly and time-consuming for the electrical Energy. Therefore, it
is important to forecast the demand growth for the long term, in which a new facility is established
to fulfill the presented demand. Further, the guidance of the capital’s enhancements in the sector is
also highlighted. However, the current paper concerns the long-term load forecasting
methodologies, which are presented and discussed precisely. The accounted methods are classified
according to availability, so the most available methods are classified first, then each category is
listed and explained. Another vital factor encompassed by the former suggested methods is
analyzed accurately, starting from the input dataset and the selected input parameters and their
effect on the obtained results, then the comprehended periods by the input dataset and ending with
the performance indices that are used to measure the performance of each method. Furthermore, a
couple of significant points are concluded: The first is the necessity for a generalized data set to be
used as a test bench for the suggested methods. The second one is the selection of the proper
performance indices to measure the performance.
